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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd