Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
