Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
